Verona – Vinitaly, 12 April 2026. Premium wines (with a minimum cellar price of 8 euros up to 25 and even 50 euros depending on the market) will continue to grow in coming years, despite the general decline in imports on a global scale. Alongside Luxury wines, they will at least partially offset the decline among products in the medium-lower part of the shelf. A far from striking growth in value - +1% from today through to 2029, which however rises to +3.5% for Made in Italy products - which, according to analysis by the Uiv-Vinitaly Observatory based on IWSR figures, may well hold even more positive surprises in store for Italy if focused on certain more strategic areas, be they consolidated or emerging. Twelve countries with the highest potential growth rate: Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, Vietnam, China, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, and India, in addition to the two main non-EU outlet markets, the United States and the United Kingdom. According to Unione Italiana Vini and Vinitaly, these are the areas where better penetration is needed to broaden the market reach of a sector that still concentrates excessively on the top five outlet markets, which alone account for 60% of total exports. The goal is to consolidate quality production, overcome difficulties, and raise the positioning bar; The latter is considered a strategic topic for exports by such a winemaking superpower as Italy, with wine – according to Prometeia – ranking second in terms of the international balance of trade among traditional Made in Italy sectors at 7.2 billion euros in 2025. “The value of exports in 2025 fell by almost 4%,” said the head of the Observatory, Carlo Flamini, “but, according to our estimates, a 20% premium share instead of the current 17% would have softened this negative balance down to -0.7%. Furthermore, if Italy has set itself the goal of increasing the role of premium products in its offering by 1 percentage point per year (+11% in value over 5 years), general exports would benefit, halting the decline that – with constant factors – is expected to continue until at least 2029, for a cumulative negative balance of -12% for the period 2024/2029.”
The Uiv-Vinitaly ranking provides a Premium Wine Opportunity Index with the 10 most interesting destinations developed by interlinking, among other things, Italian export data by price point, consumption dynamics and competitive factors on individual markets: The range goes from Japan (index 91.4) to Mexico (86.3), Brazil (78.1), South Korea (85.1) and China (72.4), through to smaller destinations which – in the general panorama of Italian wine – may seem marginal but, when looked at through “Premium lenses”, become extremely interesting: Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India all have scores above 60.
Obviously, markets that cannot be excluded include consolidated areas such as the USA, UK and Japan. In the first case, the recessionary stage will generally also affect the premium segment - but not Italian products, in a distinct contrast (+4%) brought about by continued success in the sparkling wine segment, starting with Prosecco, now called upon to achieve a significant evolutionary leap in terms of a younger target group as well as an upgrade in positioning. There is room in the UK to strengthen the lightweight position of Italian premium wines until now with growth (+3%) even for still red and rosé wines from Tuscany, Piedmont, Apulia and Abruzzo. In Japan (top of the promising country ranking), the focus should possibly be set even higher than the Premium segment to enter the luxury wine category, destined to reach a peak share of 20%.
Then there is the group of markets ready for a second restart. Beginning with China (72.4 score): While it is true that consumption in terms of volume has declined sharply over the last five years, the evolutionary path of demand in China seems be looking at the middle-upper end of the shelf. From now until 2029, the value of Premium wines will post +10%, with Italy at +2.5% thanks above all to sparkling wines (+9%) and aromatic wines such as Moscato d'Asti. The South Korean market has similar dynamics to China, while on the other side of the world Mexico and Brazil (benefiting from the progressive reduction of duties) seem to offer Italian wineries new avenues, in addition to classics such as Lambrusco that pioneered these markets. Italy's objective in South Korea could be in the medium-term: today, premium wines account for 27% of the total market - but this figure drops to 6% for Italian wines. In Mexico, premium wines have a 10% share of total consumption%, with Italy still just under half that figure, but with growth rates – thanks to reds – expected to be higher than average by 2029 (+15% versus +12%).
New generation markets are still relatively small and have little impact on Italy's export portfolio but are posting constant growth rates. The area comprising Thailand (+27% estimated Premium growth), Vietnam (+25%), the Philippine (+30%) and India (+76%), unlike Japan and South Korea, share a strong youthful connotation on the consumption side, which at first sight takes divergent paths: on the one hand, the popularity of cocktails, including wine-based recipes, and, on the other, the impetus to understand wine as a product in its own right, with WSET courses enjoying extremely high penetration rates among younger audiences, especially women. The common thread linking cocktails and wine will obviously be sparkling wine but there are also fine expectations for still wines, including whites.
Inasmuch, Vinitaly 2026 (12-15 April) is expected to welcome more than 30,000 international operators from 130 countries, in addition to 1,000 top buyers selected, invited and hosted jointly by Veronafiere and ITA-Italian Trade Agency. Outside the EU, significant delegations will arrive from North America, as well as Asia, with an increase in arrivals from China, India, Japan, and Thailand, not to mention Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Impressive attendance is also expected from South & Central America, primarily Brazil and Mexico, as well as strong growth in incoming visitors from Africa, this year expanding its scope to include 10 countries.