Despite a plethora of challenges, including inflation, rising costs, and the purchasing power of Italian families that has been structurally declining for years, with younger generations drinking less wine than older ones, both due to a constant demographic decline with more and more elderly and less and less young, and that is due in part to the latter group paying more attention to their health, Italy remains by far the top market for Italian wine. And the forecasts for the upcoming years, overall, at least in terms of turnover, appear to be positive, based on the numbers (always to be taken with due caution) recently disclosed by Statista, one of the largest online statistics portals. According to it the turnover of the wine market in Italy will reach 20.3 billion euros in 2023. But more importantly, it will increase by 6.3% until 2027, when it is anticipated that 75% of total spending, or 32% of volumes consumed, will be concentrated outside of home and split between bars and restaurants, which are confirmed to be the channel with the highest added value for wine. Which, today, Statista claims, only sees a per capita consumption of 25.4 litres annually, with a curious statistic of 377 euros spent on wine per person, in relation to the total population.
However, by segmenting the data, other interesting indications emerge. In the case of still wines, for instance, it turns out that while the per capita consumption of still wines is expected to be 21 litres in 2024, the growth in volume is expected to be practically nonexistent, with an expected increase in value of +4.2% up to 2027. Additionally, red wines, which currently have a market value of 7.3 billion euros, will see their value increase by 3.7% annually over the next four years, compared to white wines, which currently have a market value of +4.6% and a turnover of 3.5 billion euros. And even more rosé wines seem destined to grow, at an annual rate of 7% between 2023, starting, however, from a clear minority turnover to date, estimated at 1.1 billion euros. As always, sparkling wines deserve a separate discussion, the turnover of which in 2023, at 7.2 billion euros, is now equal to a third of the total. For bubbles, the “turnover” is expected to grow by 9.3% per year, between 2023 and 2027, but quantities will also increase: in 2024, volume growth is expected to increase by +3,7%.
Numbers, as previously mentioned, should be taken as they are, especially in a geopolitical and economic context where changes, sometimes abrupt and brutal in nature, are the norm and looking at prospects longer than a few months is now more difficult than ever. But, at least, these are figures that offer a positive medium-term perspective to a sector grappling with a particularly challenging period.